After more than 2 years after the start of Russian aggression, Ukraine is once again thinking about withdrawal from the Commonwealth of independent States, in which the key role is played by Moscow. Will it be difficult to Kiev to leave the organization and strike if it is somehow in the interests of the country – versed “Explorer.”
The existential crisis of the CIS
Recently the Minister of foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin stated that Ukraine is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the Commonwealth, and he is a supporter of this initiative. It is worth noting that the idea is not new. In 2014, after the annexation of Crimea Kiev refused to chair the organization and then think seriously about the withdrawal from the CIS. The process was launched in late may 2014, when the Council of national security and defense took a decision. However, for a loud statement then nothing followed, and on leaving the Commonwealth, which actually was conceived as a light-version of the Soviet Union, happily forgotten.
Meanwhile, there is no reason to believe that withdrawal from the CIS will have serious negative consequences for Ukraine. The country’s involvement in the organization at the moment, and it is almost zero.
“First, the CIS is now is not very promising platform for the promotion of the Ukrainian position. Second, the organization is not influential actor in world politics. Thirdly, it does not become the center of economic gravity. Fourth, the CIS showed a complete helplessness in resolving conflicts between member countries. You need to carefully examine the consequences of withdrawal from the Commonwealth, but at this stage this question is relevant and competent for Ukraine “, – commented on the “Explorer” program co-Director of foreign policy and international security “Razumkov Center” Mikhail Pashkov.
He stressed that in 2014, at the CIS summit from Ukraine there was an Ambassador (while other States were represented by presidents and Prime Ministers), and it is a clear signal about the role that Kyiv attaches to the Commonwealth in its international policy. It is also important that Ukraine refused to pay their dues.
CIS itself is undergoing something of an existential crisis. In fact, many of the goals that were set during the establishment of the Commonwealth, and remained on paper. For example, it was planned that the organization will be the economic and military-political Union with a single national currency and armed forces, which never happened.
As to the cooperation with the countries-members of the CIS, Ukraine has long moved on a bilateral format. The Commonwealth initially had for this handy site.
A number of agreements
At the same time, we must not forget that there are several dozens of agreements signed by Ukraine within the framework of the CIS. They relate, for example, the payment of pensions, recognition of diplomas and so on. Probably, in the case of the Commonwealth, Ukraine will need to register some reservations, or to renew important treaties at the bilateral level. This is one of the inhibiting factors on the way out of the country from the CIS. However, the foreign Ministry reported that the work, which will allow to resolve the details of the agreement is at the final stage.
“Every decision should be analysed, and the consequences calculated. But of course, I’m sure that withdrawal from the CIS in the future is absolutely inevitable. Only need this to properly execute,” – said in an interview with “observer” Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on European integration, MP from the bloc of Petro Poroshenko Maria Ionova.
The exit procedure
In part, Ukraine can rely on the Georgian experience. However, in Tbilisi passed a Resolution on withdrawal from the CIS after 6 days after the start of Russian aggression in South Ossetia. The process took a year. According to the regulations of the Commonwealth, the country, wishing to leave it shall during the 12 months before the release, in writing, notify the Depositary of the Charter.
But there is a possibility that in the case of Kiev, the procedure will be less time consuming and more simple. The fact that Ukraine is not a member of the CIS, as it has not signed its Statute. De jure it belongs to the States-founders and the States members of the Commonwealth.
“We are founders of the CIS, but not members. Therefore, the procedure out for us will be somewhat different than for Georgia. But on the Georgian experience not to forget, despite the fact that we have a different situation”, – said Mikhail Pashkov.
Despite the obvious formality and the senselessness of further participation of Ukraine in the organization, driven aggressor in society, contradictory to the withdrawal from the CIS. According to sociological research “Razumkov Center” in September of this year, only 36.6% of Ukrainians support the country’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth, 43,8% are against, and 19.6% – difficult to answer.
As reported by the “observer”, the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin said that Ukraine is considering the option of withdrawal from the CIS.